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Heterogeneous distributions are a fundamental principle of ecology, manifesting as natural variability within ecological levels of organization from individuals to ecosystems. In disease ecology, variability in biotic and abiotic factors can result in heterogeneous patterns of transmission and virulence—broadly defined here as the negative consequences of infection. Still, our classic theoretical understanding of disease dynamics comes from models that assume homogeneous transmission and virulence. Here, we test this assumption by assessing the contribution of various sources of individual and spatial heterogeneity to patterns of transmission and sublethal measurements of virulence in two lizard–malaria systems: a three‐parasite assemblage (Plasmodium floridense,Plasmodium leukocytica, andPlasmodium azurophilum) infecting the lizardAnolis gundlachiin the rainforest of Puerto Rico and a single‐parasite system (P. floridense–Anolis sagrei) in Florida. Using a Bayesian model selection framework, we evaluated whether individual host differences (i.e., body size and sex) or spatial variability (i.e., habitat type and local‐scale host spatial structure) drive heterogeneity in the probability of infection or its associated health costs (i.e., body condition, blood chemistry). We found that the probability of infection increases with increasing lizard body size in both systems. However, in Florida, we found the relationship to be subdued in deforested habitats compared to the adjacent urban hydric forests. Furthermore, infection was spatially clustered within sampling sites, with “hot” and “cold” spots across the landscape. Nevertheless, we found no clear evidence of costs of infection on lizard health in any of the measures assessed and hence no grounds for inference regarding heterogeneous virulence. Ultimately, the consistency of our results across systems suggests prominent roles of individual and spatial heterogeneities as driving factors of transmission of vector‐borne diseases.

 

Abstract Understanding the consequences of environmental fluctuations for parasite dynamics requires a long-term view stretching over many transmission cycles. Here we studied the dynamics of three malaria parasites ( Plasmodium azurophilum , P. leucocytica and P. floridense ) infecting the lizard Anolis gundlachi , in the rainforest of Puerto Rico. In this malaria–anole system we evaluated temporal fluctuations in individual probability of infection, the environmental drivers of observed variation and consequences for host body condition and Plasmodium parasites assemblage. We conducted a total of 15 surveys including 10 from 1990 to 2002 and five from 2015 to 2017. During the early years, a lizard's probability of infection by all Plasmodium species appeared stable despite disturbances ranging from two hurricanes to short droughts. Over a longer timescale, probability of infection and overall prevalence varied significantly, following non-linear relationships with temperature and rainfall such that highest prevalence is expected at intermediate climate measures. A perplexing result was that host body condition was maximized at intermediate levels of rainfall and/or temperature (when risk of infection was highest), yet we found no significant decreases in body condition due to infection. Plasmodium parasite species composition varied through time with a reduction and near local extinction of P. floridense . Our results emphasize the need for long-term studies to reveal host–parasite dynamics, their drivers and consequences.